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2011-01-04

Trend from first bar


A great trend bar as the first bar of the day is not to be missed, since it is likely to go quite a long way. An ideal first trend bar is around two points long with no more than 1t tail on each end. 3 points or longer and it could act as a trading range causing a rush to buy below it or sell above it. A couple of ticks smaller and the next bar may trigger and reverse the move before giving a scalp profit, thus establishing a trading range. One way to ensure you are entering correctly is to wait for a small pullback before or after the bar triggers. This ensures buyers had a chance to reverse the trend bar and failed.

You should be able to hold the trade until you start seeing bars with tails as we saw around bar 7. When this happens, its usually prudent to exit and re-enter on the next signal. Today, we got an A2 short at b15. Normally, its a bad idea to sell below a flag, but b14 was a failed H2, which should give at least 2 pushes down.

When the price hit the ema in a clear 2 legged move at b27, it gave a very clear A2 signal that was good for a swing. b34 was a possible final flag that triggered and reversed at b40.

The one legged move to close above ema and clear break of trendline meant there was no more short trades left in the move. An A2 entry at b55 and b70 gave long trades reversing quite a bit of the bear move.

3 comments:

  1. In the last sentence of the 3rd paragraph you say that b34 was a possible FF that reversed at b40. Isn't it a bit too far away in points b34 to b40 to be considered a FF?
    Didn't u mena b37 or 39 as FF?
    Can you please clarify?
    Thanks, Gabriel

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  2. Any ii flag after an extended move can be a final flag. b33,34 was a final flag that broke out and gave another final flag b37,38 which finally reversed.

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  3. Ok, then they were 2 separate FFs. In the paragraph it seems you are referring to a single FF from b34 to b39. Thanks for the explanation.
    You are doing an incredible job.

    ReplyDelete