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2011-01-10

Large open bar is a trading range.


Today opened with a medium sized gap but the opening bar was large. When the first bar is too large, it can act as a trading range. So its breakout on both sides can be faded on a good signal bar. Todays first breakout was above and gave the biggest move of the day. A rare outside-inside-outside reversal at b6,7,8 turned the price around and presented the first pullback at b11. However, given the entry was at the top of the flag, it was understandable to pass it up.

An exhaustion bar at b13 followed by an ii short turned around and presented an A2 long at b26. However this was hard to read and given the prior final flag and dojis was a low probability entry.

The first channel break at b35 was a risky forced a buy at the top of the range. Given the double top at 32, it was best to pass it up.

The market moved above the double top at b38 and tried to fail twice at b42 and b46. This was also a 3 push move in a channel and would act as a wedge. If this triggered and failed, there was a chance of a measured move of 5 points up. However, the price moved against the buyers twice, and an exit below b53 was apropos. b56 presented an A2 long and this was the last reasonable trade of the day. b73/74 was a possible FF or DT but given the mood of the day, its best to pass up such trades near the end of the trading session.


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