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2011-09-12

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2011-09-09

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2011-09-08

Large bars could turn into spike and channel.


The bar b49 can be read in many ways. Its possibly an entry bar below b48, which was an A2 short second entry (with b45 as first). Its possibly a failed H2 with b44 as H1. In any case, its a trap bar that results in acceleration of the trend.

When a disproportionately large bar pops from nowhere as is the case with news related events, there is a very good chance it will turn into a spike and channel type of move. The exception is if it was a trend bar that triggered off a 2-legged pullback and has follow through.

Once the spike is determined, wait for a pullback and trade only in the direction of the channel. The channel (b58-69) will be in the same direction as the spike (b49) unless the pullback also had a large spike in the opposite direction.

Channels typically but not always consist of three pushes and will give a W termination (b70) and will test the begin of the channel (b75). They will then go to the mid-range of the channel (b81).

There is a good chance you missed out on the spike but the pullback and channel often go to a measured move of the spike.

2011-09-07

Extremely strong trends


Soft trends and hard trends are two types of extremely strong trends. These should never be traded counter-trend. When you see a large up gap on the open and the first bar has a 1tf giving a fade entry near the low of the bar, there is already a very good chance it will turn into a soft-trend day.

When the second pullback is also a 1tf (b5), its a sign of a very strong trend. This essentially means bulls are buying the low of every short signal.

A well formed two legged pullback that does not quite reach the ema at b17 is another indication of strength. Often the first deep pullback is your best bet for a day long swing on a day such as this. However, any deep pullback such as b52 or b77 could be swung.

Folks who missed entering the first deep pullback can fade every L2. A soft-trend is the easiest to trade and you should take every deep 2 legged pullback even if you are conservative.

Avoiding counter-trend trading is very important. The first successful counter-trend trade was off b48. You should normally skip the first one and take the second one (b64 or b67). In general never attempt counter-trend trades until you see a one-legged move to ema such as b48-51

2011-09-02

The most recent reversal determines direction of 1PB


Everytime there is an opening reversal (OR) after a trend move (b3-b5, b6-b7), you should expect a 1PB in the direction of the latest reversal. This is because 1PB is the first pullback in a trend and when the trend reverses, the expected direction also changes.

1PB is usually reversible. This means that if your 1PB entry immediately gives a signal counter to your entry, you entered incorrectly and should probably reverse your position. For example, if you missed the inside bar reversal at b8 and took a 1PB long at b10, you should reverse short at the 1PB short on b12. This way, your 1PB entry is usually self-correcting.